Market Watch: US Rate Hikes Lift Dollar

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The ongoing rise in U.S. interest rates continues to drive the dollar higher. The euro has fallen below $1.08, while the greenback surged over 1% against the yen, hitting JPY152.75. Japanese officials have remained quiet so far, but intervention may be on the horizon. The dollar is also gaining against all G10 currencies, except sterling, which is hovering around unchanged levels. Despite the dollar's strength, gold is climbing alongside U.S. rates, setting a new high near $2,758.50. Meanwhile, after rising around 4.5% in the past two sessions, December WTI crude has softened.

Asia-Pacific Markets
The rise in the U.S. 10-year yield has pushed the dollar to JPY152.75, its highest level since late July. This marks the third consecutive week of gains against the yen and the fifth out of the last six. However, the weaker yen is no longer boosting Japanese equities as it did earlier this year. Three-month implied volatility has climbed above 11%, suggesting increased market uncertainty. Japanese officials may soon respond to the yen's weakness.
The Australian dollar has found a temporary base near $0.6650 but remains under pressure.

European Markets
European news remains quiet, with the euro and sterling struggling to maintain any momentum. A shift in expectations regarding the Fed’s rate cuts and the lower-than-2% CPI, which allows the ECB more room to cut rates, has led to a significant adjustment in the two-year interest rate differential. In late September, U.S. two-year yields were at a 40 basis point discount to the UK, contributing to sterling reaching a 2.5-year high against the dollar. That gap has now narrowed to near parity, with sterling falling slightly. Technically, sterling has breached the 61.8% retracement of its rise from the early August low, targeting the $1.0750 level.

American Markets
Fed Chair Powell referenced the Beige Book, alongside CPI data, to justify last month’s 50 bp rate cut. As a result, the Beige Book may attract more attention today.
However, the key event will be the Bank of Canada’s meeting, with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a 50 bp rate cut.