Market Watch: US Dollar Stays Strong

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar is starting the week and the month on a strong note, gaining against all G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. In equity markets, Asia-Pacific stocks rallied, with Taiwan leading the charge with a 2.1% gain. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose by 0.25%, marking what could be its third consecutive day of gains if the trend continues. Meanwhile, US index futures are experiencing minor losses.
Rising interest rates are pressuring gold, which fell about 2.7% last week, marking its fourth weekly decline in five weeks. Crude oil prices remain subdued, with January WTI trading near the lower end of last week’s $68–$69 range in quiet turnover.

Asia-Pacific Markets
China reported modest gains in its November PMI over the weekend, with the composite index stalling at 50.8 after two months of improvement. Japan, on the other hand, released strong economic data at the end of last week. This bolstered the yen, supported by growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike later this month and softer US Treasury yields.
Australia’s economic calendar highlights Q3 GDP figures midweek, followed by October household spending and trade data on Thursday. Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock continues to voice concerns over persistent core inflation pressures. Despite these developments, the Australian dollar failed to breach its 20-day moving average, which stood near $0.6525 earlier today.

European Markets
The Eurozone’s final November manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from its preliminary estimate, while unemployment held steady at a record low of 6.3% for the third consecutive month. In the UK, the final manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.0 from a preliminary estimate of 48.6, marking its third consecutive monthly decline.
The euro continues to face headwinds, slipping to near $1.0495 today as political risks in France weigh on sentiment. The euro has not closed above $1.06 since mid-November. Sterling is also trading within its pre-weekend range, reflecting limited momentum.

American Markets
A series of US economic reports released before Thanksgiving had little impact on Q4 GDP projections. However, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have climbed to 66%, up from less than 50% the previous week.
In Canada, the economy rebounded in September with a 0.3% expansion after stagnating the prior month. However, quarterly growth slowed to 1.1%, down from 2.1% in Q2 and 1.8% in Q1. As the Bank of Canada’s December 11 meeting approaches, all eyes are on its potential response to slowing growth. The US dollar remains firm against the Canadian dollar, trading in the CAD1.4015–1.4050 range during European hours and poised for further gains in North American trading.