Market Watch: US Dollar Consolidates

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar is experiencing a period of consolidation, with mixed movements against various currencies. However, the Australian dollar stands out, declining for the fourth consecutive session. The lack of new fiscal measures from China is putting pressure on the Aussie. Meanwhile, both the Japanese yen and the euro are showing firmer trends. In contrast, Mainland Chinese stocks surged as local markets reopened. US stock index futures have posted gains of 0.2%-0.4%. Gold slipped to a new low for October, briefly trading below $2629. November WTI crude oil extended its rally to nearly $78.50, a three-month high, before reversing course to test the $75.20 level.

Asia-Pacific Markets
Chinese markets resumed trading after the week-long Golden Week holiday, with the mainland stock index rising sharply by 30% in Hong Kong during the break.
Despite rising US interest rates, the dollar remained under pressure against the yen. While the greenback initially climbed above JPY149.10 during the Asia-Pacific session, it later declined and fell below JPY148 by the North American morning. Today, the losses extended further, reaching JPY147.35 during early European trading.
The Australian dollar continued its downward trajectory. After briefly trading above $0.6800 yesterday, it dropped to around $0.6740 and extended its losses today to $0.6715, with little sign of recovery as Chinese fiscal uncertainty looms.

European Markets
The euro showed resilience, holding steady despite Friday's US jobs report and a decline in German factory orders. The US-Germany two-year bond yield differential widened by 24 basis points last week, following a 12 basis point increase the previous week, returning to levels last seen in late July. However, this trend paused today after six days of widening.
The British pound also faced downward pressure, falling to $1.3060 for the first time since September 12. Nonetheless, it found some support and rebounded toward $1.31. Immediate resistance may be encountered in the $1.3125-35 range as corrective forces come into play.

American Markets
In the US, the advance estimate for the August trade deficit suggested a narrowing to $94.3 billion from $102.8 billion. The official trade balance data will be released later today.
Canada will also report its August goods trade figures. Through July, Canada’s trade deficit narrowed significantly to C$1.4 billion, compared to nearly C$5 billion a year earlier.
The US dollar continued to strengthen against the Canadian dollar for the fourth consecutive session, closing above CAD1.36 for the first time since September 10. This upward momentum reflects the greenback's broad strength against its North American counterpart.