As the North American markets closed, financial activity surged, reigniting the "Trump trade" in anticipation of electoral results. Both the US dollar and interest rates spiked sharply. The euro bore the brunt among G10 currencies, sliding 1.6%, while the Canadian dollar was the least affected with a modest 0.5% dip. US index futures rose significantly; the NASDAQ gained 1.8%, and the S&P 500 climbed 2.3%. Gold, which settled near $2745 yesterday, dropped to $2701 before recovering above $2720. December WTI crude, on a five-day upward trend, experienced a setback.
Asia-Pacific Markets
Asian markets stayed focused on US election developments, as Japan’s final services and composite PMI data had minimal impact. The US dollar began rallying even before any results were clear, rising from JPY151.30 to almost JPY154.40, reaching its highest point since late July. Following its strongest two-day advance in a month, the Australian dollar fell by nearly 2% to a three-month low around $0.6515, later rebounding to $0.6600 before pausing.
European Markets
An energy shock has weighed heavily on the eurozone’s manufacturing sector. October's PMI increased to 46 but remained under the 50-mark, indicating contraction since mid-2022. The euro initially rallied to $1.0940 but then plummeted to $1.07, its lowest since July.
The Bank of England is expected to announce a quarter-point rate cut tomorrow. Sterling crossed the $1.30 mark, surpassing its 20-day moving average for the first time since early October, though it briefly dipped to $1.2850 before stabilizing.
American Markets
In North America, the election is the central focus, eclipsing other economic indicators like the final composite PMI.
Canada’s IVEY survey came ahead of its upcoming jobs report, with markets anticipating a 50% chance of another half-point rate cut next month. The US dollar reached a two-year high against the Canadian dollar last week near CAD1.3950. While it briefly retreated to CAD1.3820, it later settled around CAD1.3885 in early European trading.