Market Watch: US Data Takes Center Stage

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Today's spotlight is on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Expectations point to another soft reading, potentially reinforcing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This anticipated cut would give the Fed an opportunity to implement another reduction before year-end.
The dollar is exhibiting a softer bias against most G10 currencies. Gold has maintained support near $1,850 earlier this week and is now trading with a firmer bias around $1,882. September WTI crude oil initially extended yesterday's recovery from $80, reaching nearly $82 today, but has since stalled and is hovering slightly above $81.

Asia Pacific Markets
Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% yesterday, bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.9%, the highest since last August. This increase had minimal impact on Japanese rates and did not bolster the yen. Market focus is shifting to the month-end Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting.
Despite no encouragement from higher US Treasury yields, the dollar edged higher against the yen yesterday, nearing JPY161.85.
The Australian dollar has shown little movement, consistently settling around $0.6740 for the past four sessions.

European Markets
The Bank of England (BOE) projects a 0.5% GDP growth for Q2. The Office for National Statistics attributed April's stagnation to poor weather and suggested that better conditions in May could have boosted the economy. The BOE is scheduled to meet on August 1. Yesterday, expectations for a BOE rate cut slightly diminished after the central bank's chief economist expressed concerns about persistent inflation.
Meanwhile, the pound has gained strength, buoyed by a stronger GDP reading, rising to $1.2880 today, its highest level since March 8.
The euro rose above $1.0850 during the European morning but then stalled. 

American Markets
The threshold for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September appears low, but there are still two more employment and CPI reports (including today’s) before then. In his testimony this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that while recent data is promising, more evidence is needed to justify a cut.

Despite last week's weak Canadian employment report and increasing bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike this month, the Canadian dollar remains strong.