As the first of what promises to be two eventful weeks draws to a close, the US job data release is set to cap the week’s key market events. Anticipating how the market will react is complex, with the upcoming US election on Tuesday and five G10 central bank meetings next week. The US dollar has generally strengthened but remains in consolidation against G10 currencies, while US futures indicate a potential bounce after yesterday’s losses.
Gold is stabilizing following a 1.6% decline, its sharpest drop in three months, likely prompted by margin calls amidst the equity selloff. Oil prices, meanwhile, continue to recover.

Asia Pacific Markets
Next week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet, though a rate cut is highly unlikely. Markets aren’t pricing in a cut until the second quarter of 2025.
The Australian dollar has been trading within a tight range as consolidation continues.
The US dollar also saw significant activity, briefly dipping below JPY152.00 yesterday before rebounding above JPY153.00 during early North American trading, buoyed by falling equities that reignited demand for US Treasuries. Today, the dollar is trading around JPY152.80, recovering from earlier lows in the local session.

European Markets
Europe’s economic calendar is light today, but the euro managed to approach $1.0890 during yesterday’s North American session, marking an 11-day high before settling below $1.09. Over the past two days, it has stayed in a $1.0840-90 range.
The British pound saw some movement, reaching $1.3040 on Wednesday ahead of the budget, but it later fell to around $1.2845. Today, it’s trading within a narrow band of $1.2885 to $1.2920.

American Markets
In the US, labor market data has seen contrasting reactions. The September report showed stronger-than-expected job growth, while October’s report is expected to reflect relative weakness. The final October manufacturing PMI and the manufacturing ISM report are also due, along with Canada’s manufacturing PMI. In Canada, the September PMI barely crossed the expansion threshold, registering above 50 for the first time since April 2023. Meanwhile, the swaps market is now pricing in just over a 50% chance of a half-point rate cut in December, following the Bank of Canada’s 125 basis points in cumulative rate cuts this year across four steps.