Market Watch: Markets Calm Ahead of Major Events

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The dollar is trading steadily today, showing a slight uptick with minimal additional selling after yesterday’s decline. The Canadian dollar and the British pound are performing best among currencies, while the yen has softened slightly following Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) report, which met expectations and reflected the impact of government energy subsidies.
Gold prices remain in a consolidation phase, holding within Wednesday’s range. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for December posted a decline yesterday, but no additional selling has emerged, with prices holding above $70 in the Asian and European morning sessions.

Asia-Pacific Markets
Japan released a lower-than-expected CPI for Tokyo, showing a decline from 2.1% in September to 1.8% in October. The report follows Japan’s weakest composite PMI since November 2022, adding to indications of reduced price pressures.
Yesterday, a drop in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields led the dollar to weaken against the yen for the first time this week, briefly dipping to JPY151.45 before bouncing back above JPY152.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has declined by 4.7% from its late-September high to around $0.6615, with further support expected near $0.6575. A calm North American trading session is anticipated.

European Markets
Economic growth in the eurozone remains sluggish, with softened inflation expectations. Despite recent developments, the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the European Central Bank in December remains around 40%.
Yesterday, the euro had its strongest performance in a month, climbing nearly 0.4% and briefly surpassing $1.08. The gains extended slightly today, though resistance held near $1.0840.
The British pound saw a comparable rise, though it remains below Wednesday’s high.

American Markets
Key data for the U.S. includes September’s durable goods orders and the final October report from the University of Michigan on consumer confidence and inflation expectations.
Canada will release its August retail sales, projected to show a moderate gain of 0.5% following July’s 0.9% surge. However, the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision, which could include a potential 50-basis-point cut, is unlikely to be swayed solely by the retail sales data, with markets currently estimating a 50% chance of a rate reduction in December.