A stronger-than-expected US jobs report caused a sharp reaction in financial markets, with the yield on the US two-year Treasury note jumping by 20 basis points. This led to a broad rally in the US dollar, as market participants slashed the odds of a 75-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the fourth quarter. Most currencies weakened against the greenback, with the exception of the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and Norwegian krone, which showed some resilience. The British pound led the decliners, slipping around 0.35%.
Equities in both Europe and the US faced downward pressure. Despite the firmer US dollar and rising interest rates, gold managed to hold its ground, trading slightly higher but still within last week's range. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to push crude oil prices higher. Last week, November WTI crude surged by 9%, and today it extended gains by another 2.3%, surpassing $76 a barrel.
Asia-Pacific Markets
In the Asia-Pacific region, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its economic assessment for two regions in its quarterly report. Additionally, BOJ branch managers highlighted that businesses are seeing the need for higher wages. Key Japanese economic data—August labor earnings, household spending, and the current account balance—will be released tomorrow.
In currency markets, the US dollar briefly touched JPY149.15 before pulling back to around JPY148 in European trading, where it found support.
The Australian dollar had a tough week, dropping by 1.6%, marking its worst weekly performance in two months. The currency also closed below its 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-September and is struggling to maintain support near $0.6780 today.
European Markets
The euro faced heavy selling pressure following the release of the US jobs report, plunging below the $1.10 level. Attempts to bounce back were capped around $1.0980, and the euro remains pinned near last week's lows. The $1.0900-$1.0920 zone may offer initial support.
The British pound, which suffered a double blow last week, extended losses to a fresh low of approximately $1.3065 today. The next key support level is near $1.30, while resistance around $1.3135 held back early gains.
American Markets
This week's key US economic event is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Thursday. Prior to that, on Wednesday, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting—which resulted in a 50-basis-point rate cut, marking the start of the current easing cycle—will be published. Today, the US is set to release August consumer credit data, with the year-to-date monthly average of consumer credit growth around $10 billion, which is approximately 30% lower than the average pace during the first seven months of 2023. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today, including Bowman and Kashkari in the afternoon, followed by Bostic and Musalem in the early evening.