Market Watch: Fed's Next Move: What to Expect?

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The U.S. dollar is under pressure as markets await the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Despite this, the Atlanta Federal Reserve revised its GDP tracker for Q3 to indicate 3.0% growth. This would mark the third time in four quarters that the economy has expanded at this rate. Interestingly, the federal government continues to run a budget deficit of around 6.5% of GDP, even as the economy grows above trend. With the economy maintaining 3% growth for the second consecutive quarter, the Federal Reserve is expected to aggressively cut interest rates, starting today. The focus of the Fed meeting will center on the size of today's rate cut and the signal provided through the Summary of Economic Projections.
Meanwhile, gold remains in a consolidation phase, trading in a range of $2,566 to $2,576. Oil prices also saw movement, with November WTI reaching a two-week high near $70.65 before easing back.

Asia-Pacific Markets
Australia is set to release its August jobs report tomorrow, with job growth running slightly ahead of last year's pace. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet next week, and a rate cut is highly unlikely.
In the U.S., stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production figures led to a rise in U.S. interest rates, which in turn boosted the dollar against the yen. After dipping below JPY140 on Monday, the dollar rallied to JPY142.50, a three-day high. During the Asia-Pacific session, the dollar briefly fell to JPY141.25 before recovering to JPY142, where it has since stalled.

European Markets
The euro reached a seven-day high near $1.1145 yesterday, though it remains below the $1.1155 peak set after the U.S. jobs report on September 6. After strong U.S. data, the euro slipped to session lows near $1.1110, marking its first losing day in four sessions.
In the UK, August CPI increased by 0.3%, leaving the year-over-year rate steady at 2.2% due to base effects. Sterling found support at $1.3145, which represents the 38.2% retracement of its recent bounce from $1.30. The pound continues to trade firmly, staying within yesterday's range.

American Markets
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve today. Until recently, markets were largely anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut. However, a recent Dow Jones article has shifted sentiment, raising the possibility of a 50 basis point cut. The derivatives market now reflects a 67% chance of this more substantial cut, up from less than 20% just last Wednesday. This shift could lead to significant market adjustments, depending on the Fed's decision and accompanying projections.