The US dollar is maintaining a firmer stance today, trading within narrow ranges in mostly quiet markets. A notable exception is the Australian dollar, which has shown resilience, possibly due to better-than-expected job growth. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ 100 experienced its steepest loss since December 2022 yesterday, which may have negatively impacted shares in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In contrast, equities in China, Hong Kong, and India advanced. Gold is consolidating in a narrow range after hitting a record high of nearly $2484 yesterday. September WTI crude oil reached a weekly high of around $82.25 earlier today but has since retreated, now trading slightly lower at approximately $81.35.

Asia Pacific Markets
Despite the recent rhetoric and a historically undervalued yen, Japan continues to run a trade deficit, averaging about JPY 540 billion per month based on June's figures. Currently, the dollar is trading near JPY156.50.
Australia's labor market showed a 50.2k increase in jobs in June, which was insufficient to prevent the unemployment rate from ticking up to 4.1%, matching the cycle high seen in January and April. Australia has created about 206k full-time positions in the first half of 2024, compared to nearly 200k in the first half of 2023. The swaps market does not anticipate an RBA rate cut until 2025. The Australian dollar held below $0.6800 at the end of last week, its highest level since early January. It pulled back by a little more than 1.0% before finding support near $0.6715 on Tuesday, recording an inside day yesterday but settling poorly.

European Markets
There is little expectation of a change in the ECB's key interest rates today, with the risk appearing minor after the June cut. With yesterday's gains, the euro retraced the decline from $1.1140 at the end of last year, targeting the $1.0980-$1.1015 area. The euro is trading within a narrow range today.
In the UK, the labor market is slowly deteriorating. The number of payrolled employees rose for the first time in three months in June, and average weekly earnings slowed for the first time since January. However, the market remains cautious after a slightly firmer-than-expected June CPI report yesterday. Sterling peaked near $1.3045 after the CPI release but later pulled back, finding support near $1.30.

American Markets
Following Tuesday's stronger-than-expected retail sales report, industrial output rose more than twice the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey (0.6% vs. 0.3%), with capacity utilization reaching a six-month high. Fed funds futures continue to price in slightly more than a 25 basis point cut in September, with more than a 55% chance of three cuts rather than two, surpassing the median projection among Fed officials of one cut. Today's data releases include the Philadelphia Fed survey, weekly jobless claims, and the index of Leading Economic Indicators.