The assassination attempt on former President Trump has introduced a new dynamic into the market, bolstering his re-election prospects. In initial market responses, the dollar strengthened, though Tokyo markets remained closed for Marine Day. As North American trading begins, the dollar remains largely stable. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled for an interview at the Economic Club in Washington shortly after midday.
Gold is stabilizing within its pre-weekend range, and September WTI crude oil prices, after pulling back to nearly $80.50 last Friday, have rebounded above $81.

Asia Pacific Markets
With Tokyo on holiday today, the dollar has traded within a narrow range (approximately JPY157.75-JPY158.40), staying in the lower half of the pre-weekend range. Following the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia appears to be the most hawkish among G10 central banks. However, the futures market has downgraded the likelihood of a rate hike to below 20%, down from over 40% a week ago.
The Australian dollar, having closed at its highest level since January 1 before the weekend, is trading firmly today within the pre-weekend range.

European Markets
Eurozone industrial production declined for the second consecutive month in May, falling by 0.6% after April's revised 0.1% drop. Despite this, it is unlikely to prompt the ECB to cut rates again during its meeting later this week, following last month's rate cut.
This week is significant for UK economic data, which will influence expectations for the Bank of England's August 1 meeting. Key data releases are concentrated in the latter part of the week, with June CPI data on Wednesday, employment and wage data on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday.
The euro initially dipped to nearly $1.0880 in Asia Pacific trading due to reactions to the Trump assassination attempt but has since recovered, reaching a marginal new high in the European morning. Sterling found support just below $1.2960 before rebounding to its pre-weekend high.

American Markets
Recent data suggests the Fed's confidence is growing that inflation is moving back towards its target, which may shift sentiment within the Fed. Fed Chair Powell spoke to Congress about the risks being more in balance on its full employment and stable price mandates. This week, the focus shifts back to the real economy, although import/export price figures are due tomorrow, with import prices expected to have fallen for the second consecutive month.