Market Watch: China's Data Remains Underwhelming

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Despite weak economic data from China, including a lackluster fiscal briefing, soft consumer price index (CPI) figures, deepening producer price index (PPI) deflation, and a smaller-than-expected trade surplus, Chinese equities have shown resilience and moved higher. Industrial commodities, such as oil, copper, and iron ore, presented mixed performance. Among the G10 currencies, the Australian dollar—often seen as a proxy for China's economy—fell by over 0.25%. The US dollar firmed up slightly but remained mostly in consolidation mode, with the Canadian dollar standing out as an exception.

Asia-Pacific Markets
China is dominating headlines today. Over the weekend, Finance Minister Lan's fiscal briefing failed to provide the detailed insights many were hoping for. The key takeaway was a focus on supporting local government finances to stabilize the struggling property market. Additionally, China’s CPI came in softer than expected at 0.4% (versus 0.6% forecast), while PPI deflation worsened to -2.8% (from -1.8%).
Meanwhile, the US dollar held strong, consolidating near its two-month highs, particularly in the JPY148-149.50 range. In Europe, it remained firm just below JPY149.50. The Australian dollar, which had settled at a four-day high of slightly above $0.6750 before the weekend, traded on the weaker side today but found support between $0.6720 and $0.6725.

European Markets
A slow start to the week for Europe, with light economic data on the calendar today. The focus is on Germany’s October ZEW survey, which could show a modest improvement tomorrow. However, the highlight of the week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a third rate cut this year is highly anticipated.
The euro has largely consolidated just below the $1.0950 mark, continuing to trade within last Thursday’s range of $1.0900-$1.0955. Meanwhile, sterling faced resistance when it moved above $1.3080.

American Markets
In the US, this week’s economic data is unlikely to have a significant impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Canada, however, will report its September CPI tomorrow. Headline inflation is expected to soften below 2%, while core inflation rates may remain unchanged.
The Canadian dollar, already on an eight-session losing streak, remains under pressure, with the US dollar reaching near CAD1.3800 in European trading—the highest level since early August.