Euro on the slide

The Euro has had a steep correction Friday through Monday, dragging the pair down -1.57% peak-to-trough and the Fiber is once again testing bids near 1.0750. 

EU Parliamentary elections hobbled the Euro heading into the new trading week as bumpy parliament shuffling poses a near-term risk for policymaking, weighing heavily on the Euro. A thin calendar on the EU side except for Final German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures early Wednesday leaves the Fiber exposed as broader markets pivot to face the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) rate call and an update to the Fed’s own dot plot summary of interest rate projections. 

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in a 51% chance that the Fed will hold on rates in September after rate cut hopes were knocked firmly back last week. With the Fed’s upcoming update to its “dot plot” of interest rate expectations on the docket this Wednesday, investors will be racing to see what Fed policymakers expect looking forward. 

Wednesday also brings an update to US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Median market forecasts expect headline CPI inflation to cool to 0.1% MoM, with Core CPI Inflation expected to tick down to 3.5% from 3.6% YoY. 

EUR/USD technical outlook 

The Fiber is stuck in near 1.0770 after a steep decline from Friday’s action near 1.0900. An overextended decline through near-term consolidation, and a bidding rebound could pare back losses back above the 1.0800 handle. 

A two-day backslide has dragged EUR/USD back below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0806, and near-term corrections will run aground of descending trendlines from 2024’s peak bids near 1.1140.