Euro down to start week

The Euro trades on a weaker note near 1.0787 on the renewed US dollar (USD) demand during the early Asian session on Monday. The higher-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) provides some support to the Greenback and weighs on the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) currently trades around 104.52, gaining 0.03% on the day.

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed on Friday that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% MoM in February, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, February PCE inflation advanced 2.5% YoY in February. The Core PCE, excluding the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in February. The data revealed an ongoing trend of inflation, which might put the Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold until it can begin cutting interest rates this year.

The US Fed left interest rates unchanged in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% for the fifth consecutive time last week, and it still expects three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in around 55% odds of a first Fed rate cut in June, down from nearly 70% last week. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that recent US inflation data was in line with expectations and that the Fed's goal for the interest rate this year remained unchanged.

On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Sunday that a total of four interest rate cuts is possible in 2024, with a total rate reduction of 100 basis points (bps) by year-end. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann stated that Europe could cut interest rates before the US. Holzmann added that interest rate cuts are likely to come, but it will depend on what wage and price developments look like by June. Market players will monitor the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, which is forecast to rise to 48.4 in March from 47.8 in the previous reading. On Tuesday, the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released.