Market Watch: US Dollar Consolidates Recent Rally

Financial and commodity markets analytics

In the aftermath of last week's surge, the dollar is presently undergoing consolidation. Among the G10 currencies, barring the Swiss franc and Swedish krona, there's a discernible uptick. Meanwhile, emerging market currencies exhibit a mixed performance, with central European currencies leading the gainers.
Across the Asia Pacific region, apart from Australia and India, major stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei witnessing a substantial drop of almost 1.2%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 demonstrates a slight softening, while US index futures also reflect a similar trend.
Both gold and May WTI crude oil are consolidating within their respective recent trading ranges.

Asia Pacific
The yen's movements are influenced by three key factors: heightened intervention concerns from Japanese authorities, speculation on the BOJ's policy trajectory, and sensitivity to US bond yields. Given the limited economic calendar this holiday-shortened week, the US 10-year yield may remain rangebound in the near term.
Profit-taking activities ahead of the weekend, driven by a combination of factors including lower US yields and intervention fears, pushed the dollar close to JPY151.00, a level it has managed to hold above today.

The Australian dollar maintains its position above $0.6500.

Europe
The euro's stability is tested as it barely clings above $1.08, encountering initial resistance around $1.0825 with the 200-day moving average looming near $1.0840.

Sterling, on the other hand, witnessed a decline of about 2 1/4 cents over the past two sessions, closing at its lowest since mid-February before the weekend. Momentum indicators such as the five-day moving average falling below the 20-day moving average signal downside pressure. Currently, sterling trades within a narrow range around $1.26.

America
Today's economic calendar for the US includes February new home sales data and surveys from the Chicago Fed on national activity and the Dallas Fed on manufacturing. Although these data points may not significantly impact the markets, it's noteworthy that economic reports since the conclusion of the FOMC meeting have generally exceeded expectations.

The US dollar, ahead of the weekend, marked a marginal new high for the year against the Canadian dollar, reaching nearly CAD1.3615. Presently, trading tone remains consolidative, with movements confined within approximately 15 ticks on either side of CAD1.3600.