Market Watch: U.S. economic data awaiting

Financial and commodity markets analytics

On Friday, the U.S. markets experienced overall gains in the midst of a volatile trading day, extending major indexes' winning streak for the seventh consecutive week. Conversely, the Asia-Pacific markets faced a downturn on Monday, particularly notable in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which declined by approximately 1%.
Gold, on the other hand, exhibited a slight uptick on Monday, buoyed by weakened bond yields as investors anxiously anticipated U.S. inflation data scheduled for release later in the week. This data is expected to provide more insight into the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates following a dovish shift the previous week.

Asia Pacific
In the Asia-Pacific region, Masakazu Tokura, Chief of the Japan business lobby Keidanren, emphasized on Monday the imperative for the Bank of Japan to normalize monetary policy expeditiously. Speculation is rife that the central bank might deviate from over a decade of stimulus policies in the coming months. Tokura noted that while inflation and real interest rates have stabilized in the United States, Japan might be witnessing a shift into negative territory for real interest rates, fueling speculation of a potential adjustment to Japan's longstanding monetary easing policy.

Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar is striving to establish a position above the resistance level of 142.5 against the Yen.

Europe
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) opted to maintain rates last week but revised down growth and inflation forecasts. Additionally, the ECB revealed plans to expedite the reduction of its balance sheet. ECB President Christine Lagarde countered market expectations of significant rate cuts in 2024.

The Euro is currently oscillating within the midpoint of the broad range spanning $1.0730 to $1.1015.

America
Turning to America, the exuberance of the "everything rally" following Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting seems to be waning, partly due to the Fed's apparent unease with the aggressive market pricing of rate cuts for the next year. The dot plot projection, reflecting where Fed officials anticipate future interest rates, suggests the possibility of three 25-basis-point cuts in the coming year. However, market sentiment indicates a more than 38% probability of rates plummeting to a range of 3.75% to 4%—equivalent to six 25-basis-point cuts—by December next year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Attempting to temper this optimism, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated on Friday that it is premature to consider such rate cuts in March.

Traders are eagerly awaiting a plethora of U.S. economic data this week, culminating in the release of the November core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index report on Friday.