Market Watch: Greenback is consolidating in ranges

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The Greenback is currently consolidating within a tight range. Initially, expectations leaned towards a dollar uptrend driven by rising interest rates. Despite the two-year note climbing from 4.40% to 4.60% post-jobs report, the dollar's ascent has been moderate. It's maintaining stability within narrow bounds today amidst quiet trading activity.

In the Asia Pacific region, equity markets exhibited mixed performance. Meanwhile, Europe's Stoxx 600 is on the rise after a 1% surge yesterday, marking its most significant increase since the end of January. US index futures show little change but are slightly softer.

Gold, after a nine-day rally, experienced a 1.1% decline yesterday, maintaining steadiness today near $2158.
April WTI is trading firmly but remains within yesterday's range of approximately $77.35-$78.75.

Asia Pacific
Japan's two-year yield has been on an upward trend, nearly doubling to 0.20% over an eight-week period. However, this trend seems to be leveling off. There's uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan's potential actions next week or in the following month, with varying opinions on the central bank's likely moves. Some advocate for an initial move to bring the overnight target rate to zero from -0.10%, while others prefer a 20 basis points increase to bring it to 0.10%.

The dollar remains strong, hovering near the upper end of yesterday's range against the Yen.
The Australian dollar hasn't surpassed $0.6620 today, with potential support around $0.6575.

Europe
The UK's January GDP displayed a 0.2% expansion following contractions in two of the three months in Q4 23, resulting in a 0.3% quarter-over-quarter contraction.
The euro hit a three-day low yesterday, slightly above $1.09, and is trading quietly today within a narrow range (~$1.0920-$1.0935).
Sterling retraced some recent gains, nearing $1.2745 yesterday, meeting the 50% retracement level of the rally from the March 1 low near $1.2600, with the next retracement at $1.2710.

America
February's CPI data hasn't had a significant impact. A Fed rate cut wasn't expected this month or in May. June's decision won't be influenced by February prices. However, the odds of a June cut slipped below 70% from slightly above 85% on Monday.

Even with the rise in the US S&P 500, the Loonie remained unaffected, falling to three-day lows. The US dollar approached CAD1.3525, just below the 61.8% retracement level from last week's decline (~CAD1.3535), currently consolidating within a narrow range below CAD1.3500.